Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
